S&P 500 Analysis and Forecast February 2021 – 3862.80 to 3899.95

Based on the monthly statistics since 2010, S&P 500 typically closes within +5% / – 5% of the previous month close.  

S&P 500 closed at 3714.23 in January.  Therefore, the projected February targets would land on 3682.80, a 4% gain, or 3899.95, a 5% gain.  This does not mean the index cannot go any higher, but it seems S&P 500 is running out of steam in February.

The blue line in the chart above shows the monthly rise or fall percentage based on the closes.

The red line in the chart above shows the monthly percentage based on the highs.

Although the highs may rise above 5% in a given month, but the index typically closes within the 5% range.  Out of the 132 instances, S&P closes 15 times above 5%. 110 times, the index closes below 4%.  26 times, the index gains more than 5%, but 15 times, the index closes below 5%.  Only 44 times, S&P 500 shows a monthly loss.  32 out of the 44 loses are less than 5%.

 

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