SP 500 Forecast
The June SP 500 forecast is now available. The SP 500 finished at 4132, where it began in early May. Markets are under pressure due to ongoing concerns about inflation, disruptions in supply and demand, and high energy prices. The SP 500 reached nearly 3,800 before reversing. The expectation that the Fed will gradually raise interest rates from 75 basis points in June and July to 50 basis points gave markets some hope, and markets recovered.
What Is Affecting the Markets?
Investors have been awakened up to the significant impact that rising prices are having on every aspect of the economy. When combined with warnings from the Federal Reserve regarding more aggressive interest rate hikes, it’s no wonder that stagflation fears are stalking the markets at the moment.
Consumer spending is the fundamental driver of the U.S. economy. It is for this reason that any indications of trouble coming from retailers should raise concerns. Companies are coping with reduced margins and growing inventories, but they have not yet fully passed on the costs to customers. In the event that they do, it is possible that inflation will become more severe for the typical family.
As growth has slowed, the risk of a recession has increased, but most economists believe a recession is unlikely this year. Due to the continued strength of the labor market, the economy may maintain its momentum. But as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and inflation eats away at the cash surplus, the likelihood of a recession next year grows.
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in March. In April, Fed policymakers started having second thoughts about how quickly they believed interest rates needed to increase in order to keep inflation under control. The projections made by Wall Street also changed. Since the Fed’s benchmark rate is expected to reach about 2% by July, what the Fed does and says is very important.
When Inflation Rises, How to Invest and Profit
The stock market has been volatile with the Fed planning to raise interest rates and the economy showing signs of weakness. Expect more market volatility as market participants decide if the economy can withstand higher interest rates without contracting. Expect more rotation in the stock market, especially from goods-oriented to service-oriented companies. Consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare do well when the economy slows. Inflationary markets favor value stocks and commodities. Value stocks have high earnings relative to their current share price. However, commodity prices are highly volatile. To succeed, you must pick stocks carefully.
The May SP 500 Forecast Model
You may find more information about the S&P 500 May forecast model by visiting this page.