We ran the numbers based on the index’s closing price of 4,348 on Friday, June 23, to project its future performance. Our model has not changed its prior prediction of a flat to slightly upward-moving S&P 500.

Inflation and interest rates remain key market catalysts, with the consumer price index increasing 4.9% in April. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation remains high, and the central bank will remain “steadfast” in pursuing price stability. The Federal Open Market Committee raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in May, with no hikes in June, and Powell indicated more rate hikes are necessary if inflation data is hotter than expected.