NASDAQ Outlook: How to Make Sense of the Current Situation

Overview

This post has the current NASDAQ outlook and forecast, as well as a list of past ones. The forecast, its patterns, and how to interpret them will also be discussed.

NASDAQ Outlook and Charts

A number of different algorithms are used to carry out the calculations. In addition to historical NASDAQ values over the previous five years, this forecast takes into account other variables such as stock market indices and economic data to arrive at its forecast.

January 2023, NASDAQ Outlook

Wall Street will likely continue to focus on inflation and interest rates over the first three months of 2023. By March 2023, the bond market expects the Fed to have raised rates by at least another 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates rapidly so far without sending the economy into a downturn. But new economic reports show that a recession at the start of 2023 is now more likely than ever. When hiring slows down a lot, it should be a sign that the economy is about to go into a recession. To date, the job market has shown remarkable resilience.

When the economy is bad, some market sectors do better than others because their earnings tend to be more stable and consistent. Investors often look to defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples when assessing risk. Sometimes the eye of a hurricane might make it appear as though the storm has passed. However, the worst of its force is still to come. According to the projection model, the NASDAQ has not yet hit rock bottom. It is predicted to fall further in 2023.

Month		Forecast
Jan-23		9,916
Feb-23		9,236
Mar-23		8,654
Apr-23		7,469
May-23		7,155
Jun-23		6,708
Jul-23		7,006
Aug-23		6,294
Sep-23		5,322
Oct-23		5,153
Nov-23		4,899
Dec-23		4,229
NASDAQ Outlook: The FORECAST MODEL JANUARY 2023

October 2022, NASDAQ Outlook

The markets have been hampered by inflation and rising interest rates throughout the better part of 2022. The cost of living and consumer goods alike have all increased. Customers are more wary than ever before about where, when, and how they spend their hard-earned cash. Inflation fears, interest rate hikes, and the prospect of a recession have all contributed to months of market volatility. And unfortunately, this pattern will continue.

The earnings season for the third quarter also begins in October, adding to the pressure from worsening macroeconomic conditions. Earnings information for October should be quite telling. The upcoming quarterly earnings reports from companies will be important. What companies say about the rest of the year and next year is going to be the main focus of investors.

To avoid losing money in today’s volatile market, it’s best to sit on the sidelines and save up. Deals can still be had if one knows where to look. The rule of thumb in the current market is to invest in stable, high-yielding, high-quality companies. When inflation finally begins to fall, these businesses will reap the rewards. The current environment supports the idea that you should diversify your investments. Real assets, such as commodities and natural resources equities, could be a good fit for some investors’ investment portfolios.

In spite of the model’s most recent predictions, a temporary relief bounce in the index was still possible before a prolonged downturn during the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

Month		Forecast
Oct-22		11,669
Nov-22		11,643
Dec-22		11,463
Jan-23		10,400
Feb-23		9,779
Mar-23		9,545
Apr-23		8,327
May-23		7,841
Jun-23		7,167
Jul-23		7,572
Aug-23		7,143
Sep-23		6,304
NASDAQ FORECAST MODEL OCTOBER 2022

September 2022, NASDAQ Outlook

The forecast model suggested that the market would not make a big comeback in the coming months. Before the downtrend starts again, the index will move sideways.

The Fed’s aggressive position on interest rates will continue to rule the markets. In the past few months, as interest rates have gone up, the housing market has slowed down. On the other hand, there is still a lot of demand for workers in the job market. The job numbers stayed strong. How fast the Fed can change its monetary policy depends on how well the job market is doing.

The Fed’s plans to stop inflation will be closely watched by the markets to see if they will hurt the economy. Powell told the markets that the Fed wouldn’t change its policy until inflation was under control, even if that hurt the U.S. economy.

NASDAQ Forecast model SEPTEMBER 2022
Month		Forecast
Sep-22		12,035
Oct-22		12,259
Nov-22		12,210
Dec-22		11,944
Jan-23		10,771
Feb-23		10,028
Mar-23		9,666
Apr-23		8,416
May-23		7,884
Jun-23		7,230
Jul-23		7,622
Aug-23		7,255

August 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

The NASDAQ closed at 12,391 in July. The forecast had projected a substantial recovery for months, and it finally materialized in July. The projection model anticipated that the market would be volatile throughout the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. It continued to forecast a corrective upward movement before the downward trend resumed.

Some economic data is weak, but not the labor market data. Company hiring continues to be robust. This quarter’s earnings are better than expected, and many expect a rosy next quarter or rest of the year. Uncertainty remains over whether inflation will be tamed soon and whether rate hikes will slow economic growth. Markets will remain volatile as a result.

Month		Forecast
Aug-22		13,846
Sep-22		13,239
Oct-22		13,967
Nov-22		13,957
Dec-22		13,754
Jan-23		12,305
Feb-23		11,501
Mar-23		11,190
Apr-23		9,503
May-23		8,994
Jun-23		8,256
Jul-23		9,101
The NASDAQ forecast model AUGUST 2022

July 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

On June 30, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 11,029. Since setting a new all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, the NASDAQ index has been under pressure. The market was expected to be volatile for the rest of 2022, according to the projection model. It predicted a significant increase in the not-too-distant future, followed by a dramatic decline.

The NASDAQ index has suffered the most as interest rates have risen. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in June to combat inflation and will continue to do so in the future. Investors fear that rising interest rates will trigger a recession. Interest rate increases reduce the present value of future earnings. For this reason, growth and technology companies have become less appealing.

Rising food, energy, and commodity prices may limit consumer spending. As a result, both business profits and economic growth would suffer. COVID’s influence on international trade is growing as shipping costs rise and the frequency of delays rises. Because of the situation in Ukraine and China’s zero COVID policy, this slowdown is more severe than expected. Earnings should be the primary driver of stock prices in the future, rather than macroeconomic factors. To this end, there is a strong possibility that market volatility will continue.

Month		Forecast
Jul-22		14,190
Aug-22		15,175
Sep-22		14,574
Oct-22		15,138
Nov-22		14,602
Dec-22		13,922
Jan-23		12,042
Feb-23		10,980
Mar-23		10,469
Apr-23		8,702
May-23		8,288
Jun-23		7,687

The NASDAQ forecast model JULY 2022

June 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

On May 31, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 12,081. Since reaching an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, the NASDAQ index has been under pressure. For the rest of 2022, the forecast model predicted a sideways and then declining trend.

Rising interest rates have hurt the NASDAQ index the most. The Fed will continue to do so in order to combat inflation. Investors fear that higher rates could cause a recession. Higher yields discount future earnings, making growth and tech stocks less attractive. Food, energy, and commodity costs may slow consumer spending, hurting business earnings and economic growth. COVID’s impact on global trade continues to grow as shipping costs climb and delays become routine. High energy costs push up shipping expenses, and a trucking manpower shortage compounds the issue. Inflation and supply chain concerns may last until 2022. Volatility will likely continue.

Month		Forecast
Jun-22		14,143
Jul-22		14,394
Aug-22		15,027
Sep-22		14,192
Oct-22		14,777
Nov-22		14,810
Dec-22		14,921
Jan-23		13,857
Feb-23		13,597
Mar-23		13,947
Apr-23		12,612
May-23		12,769




The NASDAQ forecast model JUNE 2022

May 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

On April 29, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 12,335. The NASDAQ index, which hit an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, has been under pressure ever since. The forecast model expected a sideways and then declining trend for the rest of 2022.

The NASDAQ index has been trading between 14,000 and 16,000 since June, but it finally fell below 14,000 this month. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 0.75 percent this year and will keep doing so to combat rising inflation and warn against the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Higher food, energy, and commodity prices may soon slow consumer spending, affecting corporate earnings and slowing economic growth. COVID’s impact on global trade continues to grow as shipping costs rise and delays become routine. High energy costs drive up shipping costs, and a labor shortage among trucking companies compounds the issue. Inflation and supply chain issues are likely to continue through 2022. Price and market volatility will probably continue.

Month		Forecast
May-22		14,025
Jun-22		14,743
Jul-22		14,982
Aug-22		15,622
Sep-22		14,757
Oct-22		15,382
Nov-22		15,475
Dec-22		15,600
Jan-23		14,509
Feb-23		14,217
Mar-23		14,576
Apr-23		13,232



NASDAQ Forecast model on MAY 1, 2022.

April 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

On March 31, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 14,220. The NASDAQ index, which hit an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, has been under pressure ever since. The forecast model still predicted that the index would rise slightly before settling into a steady pattern for the rest of 2022.

The NASDAQ index stayed between 14,000 and 16,000, as did the model projection. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat growing inflation and warn about the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Constrained consumer spending may soon impact corporate earnings and so hinder economic growth. Equities confront a double threat as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policies and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may slow economic growth. Inflation and supply chain problems will probably persist. Price and market volatility are likely to remain.

Month		Forecast
Apr-22		14,897
May-22		14,801
Jun-22		15,533
Jul-22		15,750
Aug-22		16,330
Sep-22		15,370
Oct-22		15,845
Nov-22		15,968
Dec-22		16,095
Jan-23		15,114
Feb-23		14,911
Mar-23		15,258


NASDAQ Forecast model on APRIL 1, 2022.

The forecast model continued to predict a gain in the NASDAQ index based on the March closing price. It indicated a small upward rise in the following months before grinding to a halt. This might mean a setback in the near term. Due to the uncertainty, investors should proceed with caution. One thing to examine is using a covered call strategy.

SP 500 Forecast

The forecast for the SP 500 is also available. You can read about it here.

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