NASDAQ Outlook: How to Make Sense of the Current Situation


This post has the current NASDAQ outlook and forecast, as well as a list of past ones. The forecast, its patterns, and how to interpret them will also be discussed.

NASDAQ Outlook and Charts

A number of different algorithms are used to carry out the calculations. In addition to historical NASDAQ values over the previous five years, this forecast takes into account other variables such as stock market indices and economic data to arrive at its forecast.

June 2023, NASDAQ Outlook

Despite fears of a recession in 2023, investors are focusing on the Fed’s decision to suspend hikes in rates and the solid first-quarter earnings season. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that inflation is too high but that policy rates may not need to rise as much as they would otherwise owing to tightening credit markets, highlighting the continued importance of inflation and interest rates as catalysts.

Even though the NASDAQ had a wonderful month in May owing to Nvidia’s blowout earnings, our projection model still predicted a sideways market with a very steady upward climb for the remainder of 2023.

Month		Forecast
Jun-23		11,825
Jul-23		12,186
Aug-23		12,430
Sep-23		12,027
Oct-23		12,188
Nov-23		12,671
Dec-23		12,537
Jan-24		12,986
Feb-24		12,830
Mar-24		12,853
Apr-24		13,112
May-24		13,303
Nasdaq Outlook: Nasdaq Forecast Model June 2023

May 2023, NASDAQ Outlook

Our models now anticipate that the NASDAQ will trend sideways. A more optimistic outlook prevails on the NASDAQ than on the SP 500, as evidenced by the tech sector’s ongoing recovery in April. The turbulence in the financial sector is to blame for the slump in the SP 500. Earnings reports from major heavyweights like Microsoft, Meta, and Apple have fueled investor optimism. While many tech firms reported strong financial results, some did not. This lack of clarity about the NASDAQ’s future direction justifies the call for a sideways trend.

The market’s ongoing shockwaves from the recent banking crisis could have an impact on the tech-heavy NASDAQ. First Republic Bank was the failed bank that was, in turn, taken over by JPMorgan Chase. Investors betting on the next bank to fail drove down shares of PacWest Bancorp by 80% year to date as rumors spread. Inflation and high interest rates will continue to have a significant impact on the market in the coming months, in addition to the banking crisis. Earnings reports show that many businesses are experiencing declining profits and slower expansion. Even if the Federal Reserve expects to halt rate hikes soon, the probability of a recession remains high.

Month	Value	Forecast
May-23		11,540
Jun-23		11,253
Jul-23		11,649
Aug-23		11,768
Sep-23		11,333
Oct-23		11,522
Nov-23		11,902
Dec-23		11,709
Jan-24		12,104
Feb-24		11,941
Mar-24		11,948
Apr-24		12,045
Nasdaq Outlook: Nasdaq Forecast Model May 2023

April 2023, NASDAQ Outlook

Our projections have become more optimistic about the NASDAQ. As the very robust tech sector rebound in March shows, sentiment is even more bullish on the NASDAQ than on the SP 500. In March, Meta’s shares rose 21%, while Google’s rose nearly 12%.

But there are still signs that the market is still reeling from the recent banking crisis, which could affect the tech-heavy NASDAQ. Even though the banking crisis may be over, inflation and interest rates will still have a big effect on the market in the coming months. Recent bank failures were not as bad as they could have been because unemployment rates and the job market were so strong. The risk of a recession is still significant, even though the Fed plans to stop raising rates shortly.

Month		Forecast
Apr-23		11,613
May-23		12,046
Jun-23		12,776
Jul-23		13,965
Aug-23		14,877
Sep-23		14,813
Oct-23		15,447
Nasdaq Outlook: Nasdaq Forecast Model April 2023

March 2023, NASDAQ Outlook

The fundamental preoccupation of markets is the Federal Reserve’s conundrum of reducing inflation without stifling the economy’s job growth or triggering a recession. Financial markets were unnerved after reading inflation figures that showed the rate of price decline had stalled. This means the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation will continue for some time.

Factors like the recent strong employment report, which again underlined the strength of the labor market, have led our forecast model to predict a sideways trend in the near future. And the Federal Reserve’s suggestions that it plans to keep hiking interest rates, and the recent earnings season reports that have shown mixed results.

Together, these factors point to a potentially volatile market in the near future as Wall Street struggles to establish clear paths. Thus, uncertainty makes the investment climate risky.

Month		Forecast
Mar-23		10,282
Apr-23		10,281
May-23		10,186
Jun-23		10,312
Jul-23		10,743
Aug-23		10,926
Sep-23		10,397
Oct-23		10,376
Nov-23		10,744
Dec-23		10,526
Jan-24		10,717
Feb-24		10,506
Nasdaq Outlook: Nasdaq Forecast Model March 2023

February 2023, NASDAQ Outlook

The NASDAQ index gained over 10% in January. As a result, our forecasting algorithm generated a major change in the direction of the index. The model has consistently predicted a downward trend for NASDAQ over the past few months. However, the index is now expected to trend sideways, contrary to earlier predictions.

Data on the gross domestic product and the job market show that the U.S. economy is still in good shape. But inflation data suggest that the Fed’s policy is starting to slow the rate at which prices are going up. Nevertheless, inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on stock values.

The recession remained a topic of discussion. In the coming months, it may determine if it can manage a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy without causing a recession. Moderating inflation and predictions of slower Fed tightening have been positive for markets. However, the economy will decline in the second half of 2023 as a result of the Fed’s past tightening. As a result, earnings projections will be lowered, acting as a drag on equities.

Month		Forecast
Feb-23		10,127
Mar-23		9,990
Apr-23		10,045
May-23		9,983
Jun-23		10,132
Jul-23		10,568
Aug-23		10,771
Sep-23		10,265
Oct-23		10,255
Nov-23		10,639
Dec-23		10,450
Jan-24		10,649
Nasdaq Outlook: Nasdaq Forecast Model February 2023

January 2023, NASDAQ Outlook

Wall Street will likely continue to focus on inflation and interest rates over the first three months of 2023. By March 2023, the bond market expects the Fed to have raised rates by at least another 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates rapidly so far without sending the economy into a downturn. But new economic reports show that a recession at the start of 2023 is now more likely than ever. When hiring slows down a lot, it should be a sign that the economy is about to go into a recession. To date, the job market has shown remarkable resilience.

When the economy is bad, some market sectors do better than others because their earnings tend to be more stable and consistent. Investors often look to defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples when assessing risk. Sometimes the eye of a hurricane might make it appear as though the storm has passed. However, the worst of its force is still to come. According to the projection model, the NASDAQ has not yet hit rock bottom. It is predicted to fall further in 2023.

Month		Forecast
Jan-23		9,943
Feb-23		9,263
Mar-23		8,679

NASDAQ OUTLOOK Forecast Model January 2023

October 2022, NASDAQ Outlook

The markets have been hampered by inflation and rising interest rates throughout the better part of 2022. The cost of living and consumer goods alike have all increased. Customers are more wary than ever before about where, when, and how they spend their hard-earned cash. Inflation fears, interest rate hikes, and the prospect of a recession have all contributed to months of market volatility. And unfortunately, this pattern will continue.

The earnings season for the third quarter also begins in October, adding to the pressure from worsening macroeconomic conditions. Earnings information for October should be quite telling. The upcoming quarterly earnings reports from companies will be important. What companies say about the rest of the year and next year is going to be the main focus of investors.

To avoid losing money in today’s volatile market, it’s best to sit on the sidelines and save up. Deals can still be had if one knows where to look. The rule of thumb in the current market is to invest in stable, high-yielding, high-quality companies. When inflation finally begins to fall, these businesses will reap the rewards. The current environment supports the idea that you should diversify your investments. Real assets, such as commodities and natural resources equities, could be a good fit for some investors’ investment portfolios.

In spite of the model’s most recent predictions, a temporary relief bounce in the index was still possible before a prolonged downturn during the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

Month		Forecast
Oct-22		11,629
Nov-22		11,590
Dec-22		11,387
Jan-23		10,321
Feb-23		9,684
Mar-23		9,424
Apr-23		8,227

NASDAQ OUTLOOK Forecast Model October 2022

September 2022, NASDAQ Outlook

The forecast model suggested that the market would not make a big comeback in the coming months. Before the downtrend starts again, the index will move sideways.

The Fed’s aggressive position on interest rates will continue to rule the markets. In the past few months, as interest rates have gone up, the housing market has slowed down. On the other hand, there is still a lot of demand for workers in the job market. The job numbers stayed strong. How fast the Fed can change its monetary policy depends on how well the job market is doing.

The Fed’s plans to stop inflation will be closely watched by the markets to see if they will hurt the economy. Powell told the markets that the Fed wouldn’t change its policy until inflation was under control, even if that hurt the U.S. economy.

NASDAQ OUTLOOK: Forecast Model September 2022
Month		Forecast
Sep-22		12,152
Oct-22		12,700
Nov-22		12,689
Dec-22		12,564
Jan-23		11,339
Feb-23		10,702
Mar-23		10,536
Apr-23		9,034
May-23		8,558
Jun-23		7,802
Jul-23		8,461
Aug-23		8,071

August 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

The NASDAQ closed at 12,391 in July. The forecast had projected a substantial recovery for months, and it finally materialized in July. The projection model anticipated that the market would be volatile throughout the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. It continued to forecast a corrective upward movement before the downward trend resumed.

Some economic data is weak, but not the labor market data. Company hiring continues to be robust. This quarter’s earnings are better than expected, and many expect a rosy next quarter or rest of the year. Uncertainty remains over whether inflation will be tamed soon and whether rate hikes will slow economic growth. Markets will remain volatile as a result.

Month		Forecast
Aug-22		13,846
Sep-22		13,239
Oct-22		13,967
Nov-22		13,957
Dec-22		13,754
Jan-23		12,305
Feb-23		11,501
Mar-23		11,190
Apr-23		9,503
May-23		8,994
Jun-23		8,256
Jul-23		9,101
The NASDAQ forecast model AUGUST 2022

July 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

On June 30, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 11,029. Since setting a new all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, the NASDAQ index has been under pressure. The market was expected to be volatile for the rest of 2022, according to the projection model. It predicted a significant increase in the not-too-distant future, followed by a dramatic decline.

The NASDAQ index has suffered the most as interest rates have risen. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in June to combat inflation and will continue to do so in the future. Investors fear that rising interest rates will trigger a recession. Interest rate increases reduce the present value of future earnings. For this reason, growth and technology companies have become less appealing.

Rising food, energy, and commodity prices may limit consumer spending. As a result, both business profits and economic growth would suffer. COVID’s influence on international trade is growing as shipping costs rise and the frequency of delays rises. Because of the situation in Ukraine and China’s zero COVID policy, this slowdown is more severe than expected. Earnings should be the primary driver of stock prices in the future, rather than macroeconomic factors. To this end, there is a strong possibility that market volatility will continue.

Month		Forecast
Jul-22		14,190
Aug-22		15,175
Sep-22		14,574
Oct-22		15,138
Nov-22		14,602
Dec-22		13,922
Jan-23		12,042
Feb-23		10,980
Mar-23		10,469
Apr-23		8,702
May-23		8,288
Jun-23		7,687

The NASDAQ forecast model JULY 2022

June 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

On May 31, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 12,081. Since reaching an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, the NASDAQ index has been under pressure. For the rest of 2022, the forecast model predicted a sideways and then declining trend.

Rising interest rates have hurt the NASDAQ index the most. The Fed will continue to do so in order to combat inflation. Investors fear that higher rates could cause a recession. Higher yields discount future earnings, making growth and tech stocks less attractive. Food, energy, and commodity costs may slow consumer spending, hurting business earnings and economic growth. COVID’s impact on global trade continues to grow as shipping costs climb and delays become routine. High energy costs push up shipping expenses, and a trucking manpower shortage compounds the issue. Inflation and supply chain concerns may last until 2022. Volatility will likely continue.

Month		Forecast
Jun-22		14,143
Jul-22		14,394
Aug-22		15,027
Sep-22		14,192
Oct-22		14,777
Nov-22		14,810
Dec-22		14,921
Jan-23		13,857
Feb-23		13,597
Mar-23		13,947
Apr-23		12,612
May-23		12,769

The NASDAQ forecast model JUNE 2022

May 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

On April 29, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 12,335. The NASDAQ index, which hit an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, has been under pressure ever since. The forecast model expected a sideways and then declining trend for the rest of 2022.

The NASDAQ index has been trading between 14,000 and 16,000 since June, but it finally fell below 14,000 this month. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 0.75 percent this year and will keep doing so to combat rising inflation and warn against the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Higher food, energy, and commodity prices may soon slow consumer spending, affecting corporate earnings and slowing economic growth. COVID’s impact on global trade continues to grow as shipping costs rise and delays become routine. High energy costs drive up shipping costs, and a labor shortage among trucking companies compounds the issue. Inflation and supply chain issues are likely to continue through 2022. Price and market volatility will probably continue.

Month		Forecast
May-22		14,025
Jun-22		14,743
Jul-22		14,982
Aug-22		15,622
Sep-22		14,757
Oct-22		15,382
Nov-22		15,475
Dec-22		15,600
Jan-23		14,509
Feb-23		14,217
Mar-23		14,576
Apr-23		13,232

NASDAQ Forecast model on MAY 1, 2022.

April 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast

On March 31, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 14,220. The NASDAQ index, which hit an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, has been under pressure ever since. The forecast model still predicted that the index would rise slightly before settling into a steady pattern for the rest of 2022.

The NASDAQ index stayed between 14,000 and 16,000, as did the model projection. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat growing inflation and warn about the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Constrained consumer spending may soon impact corporate earnings and so hinder economic growth. Equities confront a double threat as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policies and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may slow economic growth. Inflation and supply chain problems will probably persist. Price and market volatility are likely to remain.

Month		Forecast
Apr-22		14,897
May-22		14,801
Jun-22		15,533
Jul-22		15,750
Aug-22		16,330
Sep-22		15,370
Oct-22		15,845
Nov-22		15,968
Dec-22		16,095
Jan-23		15,114
Feb-23		14,911
Mar-23		15,258

NASDAQ Forecast model on APRIL 1, 2022.

The forecast model continued to predict a gain in the NASDAQ index based on the March closing price. It indicated a small upward rise in the following months before grinding to a halt. This might mean a setback in the near term. Due to the uncertainty, investors should proceed with caution. One thing to examine is using a covered call strategy.

SP 500 Forecast

The forecast for the SP 500 is also available. You can read about it here.

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