Overview
This post has the current NASDAQ outlook and forecast, as well as a list of past ones. The forecast, its patterns, and how to interpret them will also be discussed.
Contents
- NASDAQ Outlook and Charts
- June 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
- May 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
- April 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
- March 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
- February 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
- January 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
- October 2022, NASDAQ Outlook
- September 2022, NASDAQ Outlook
- August 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
- July 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
- June 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
- May 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
- April 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
- SP 500 Forecast
NASDAQ Outlook and Charts
A number of different algorithms are used to carry out the calculations. In addition to historical NASDAQ values over the previous five years, this forecast takes into account other variables such as stock market indices and economic data to arrive at its forecast.
June 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
Despite fears of a recession in 2023, investors are focusing on the Fed’s decision to suspend hikes in rates and the solid first-quarter earnings season. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that inflation is too high but that policy rates may not need to rise as much as they would otherwise owing to tightening credit markets, highlighting the continued importance of inflation and interest rates as catalysts.
Even though the NASDAQ had a wonderful month in May owing to Nvidia’s blowout earnings, our projection model still predicted a sideways market with a very steady upward climb for the remainder of 2023.
Month Forecast Jun-23 11,825 Jul-23 12,186 Aug-23 12,430 Sep-23 12,027 Oct-23 12,188 Nov-23 12,671 Dec-23 12,537 Jan-24 12,986 Feb-24 12,830 Mar-24 12,853 Apr-24 13,112 May-24 13,303
May 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
Our models now anticipate that the NASDAQ will trend sideways. A more optimistic outlook prevails on the NASDAQ than on the SP 500, as evidenced by the tech sector’s ongoing recovery in April. The turbulence in the financial sector is to blame for the slump in the SP 500. Earnings reports from major heavyweights like Microsoft, Meta, and Apple have fueled investor optimism. While many tech firms reported strong financial results, some did not. This lack of clarity about the NASDAQ’s future direction justifies the call for a sideways trend.
The market’s ongoing shockwaves from the recent banking crisis could have an impact on the tech-heavy NASDAQ. First Republic Bank was the failed bank that was, in turn, taken over by JPMorgan Chase. Investors betting on the next bank to fail drove down shares of PacWest Bancorp by 80% year to date as rumors spread. Inflation and high interest rates will continue to have a significant impact on the market in the coming months, in addition to the banking crisis. Earnings reports show that many businesses are experiencing declining profits and slower expansion. Even if the Federal Reserve expects to halt rate hikes soon, the probability of a recession remains high.
Month Value Forecast May-23 11,540 Jun-23 11,253 Jul-23 11,649 Aug-23 11,768 Sep-23 11,333 Oct-23 11,522 Nov-23 11,902 Dec-23 11,709 Jan-24 12,104 Feb-24 11,941 Mar-24 11,948 Apr-24 12,045
April 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
Our projections have become more optimistic about the NASDAQ. As the very robust tech sector rebound in March shows, sentiment is even more bullish on the NASDAQ than on the SP 500. In March, Meta’s shares rose 21%, while Google’s rose nearly 12%.
But there are still signs that the market is still reeling from the recent banking crisis, which could affect the tech-heavy NASDAQ. Even though the banking crisis may be over, inflation and interest rates will still have a big effect on the market in the coming months. Recent bank failures were not as bad as they could have been because unemployment rates and the job market were so strong. The risk of a recession is still significant, even though the Fed plans to stop raising rates shortly.
Month Forecast Apr-23 11,613 May-23 12,046 Jun-23 12,776 Jul-23 13,965 Aug-23 14,877 Sep-23 14,813 Oct-23 15,447
March 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
The fundamental preoccupation of markets is the Federal Reserve’s conundrum of reducing inflation without stifling the economy’s job growth or triggering a recession. Financial markets were unnerved after reading inflation figures that showed the rate of price decline had stalled. This means the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation will continue for some time.
Factors like the recent strong employment report, which again underlined the strength of the labor market, have led our forecast model to predict a sideways trend in the near future. And the Federal Reserve’s suggestions that it plans to keep hiking interest rates, and the recent earnings season reports that have shown mixed results.
Together, these factors point to a potentially volatile market in the near future as Wall Street struggles to establish clear paths. Thus, uncertainty makes the investment climate risky.
Month Forecast Mar-23 10,282 Apr-23 10,281 May-23 10,186 Jun-23 10,312 Jul-23 10,743 Aug-23 10,926 Sep-23 10,397 Oct-23 10,376 Nov-23 10,744 Dec-23 10,526 Jan-24 10,717 Feb-24 10,506
February 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
The NASDAQ index gained over 10% in January. As a result, our forecasting algorithm generated a major change in the direction of the index. The model has consistently predicted a downward trend for NASDAQ over the past few months. However, the index is now expected to trend sideways, contrary to earlier predictions.
Data on the gross domestic product and the job market show that the U.S. economy is still in good shape. But inflation data suggest that the Fed’s policy is starting to slow the rate at which prices are going up. Nevertheless, inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on stock values.
The recession remained a topic of discussion. In the coming months, it may determine if it can manage a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy without causing a recession. Moderating inflation and predictions of slower Fed tightening have been positive for markets. However, the economy will decline in the second half of 2023 as a result of the Fed’s past tightening. As a result, earnings projections will be lowered, acting as a drag on equities.
Month Forecast Feb-23 10,127 Mar-23 9,990 Apr-23 10,045 May-23 9,983 Jun-23 10,132 Jul-23 10,568 Aug-23 10,771 Sep-23 10,265 Oct-23 10,255 Nov-23 10,639 Dec-23 10,450 Jan-24 10,649
January 2023, NASDAQ Outlook
Wall Street will likely continue to focus on inflation and interest rates over the first three months of 2023. By March 2023, the bond market expects the Fed to have raised rates by at least another 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates rapidly so far without sending the economy into a downturn. But new economic reports show that a recession at the start of 2023 is now more likely than ever. When hiring slows down a lot, it should be a sign that the economy is about to go into a recession. To date, the job market has shown remarkable resilience.
When the economy is bad, some market sectors do better than others because their earnings tend to be more stable and consistent. Investors often look to defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples when assessing risk. Sometimes the eye of a hurricane might make it appear as though the storm has passed. However, the worst of its force is still to come. According to the projection model, the NASDAQ has not yet hit rock bottom. It is predicted to fall further in 2023.
Month Forecast Jan-23 9,943 Feb-23 9,263 Mar-23 8,679
October 2022, NASDAQ Outlook
The markets have been hampered by inflation and rising interest rates throughout the better part of 2022. The cost of living and consumer goods alike have all increased. Customers are more wary than ever before about where, when, and how they spend their hard-earned cash. Inflation fears, interest rate hikes, and the prospect of a recession have all contributed to months of market volatility. And unfortunately, this pattern will continue.
The earnings season for the third quarter also begins in October, adding to the pressure from worsening macroeconomic conditions. Earnings information for October should be quite telling. The upcoming quarterly earnings reports from companies will be important. What companies say about the rest of the year and next year is going to be the main focus of investors.
To avoid losing money in today’s volatile market, it’s best to sit on the sidelines and save up. Deals can still be had if one knows where to look. The rule of thumb in the current market is to invest in stable, high-yielding, high-quality companies. When inflation finally begins to fall, these businesses will reap the rewards. The current environment supports the idea that you should diversify your investments. Real assets, such as commodities and natural resources equities, could be a good fit for some investors’ investment portfolios.
In spite of the model’s most recent predictions, a temporary relief bounce in the index was still possible before a prolonged downturn during the rest of 2022 and into 2023.
Month Forecast Oct-22 11,629 Nov-22 11,590 Dec-22 11,387 Jan-23 10,321 Feb-23 9,684 Mar-23 9,424 Apr-23 8,227
September 2022, NASDAQ Outlook
The forecast model suggested that the market would not make a big comeback in the coming months. Before the downtrend starts again, the index will move sideways.
The Fed’s aggressive position on interest rates will continue to rule the markets. In the past few months, as interest rates have gone up, the housing market has slowed down. On the other hand, there is still a lot of demand for workers in the job market. The job numbers stayed strong. How fast the Fed can change its monetary policy depends on how well the job market is doing.
The Fed’s plans to stop inflation will be closely watched by the markets to see if they will hurt the economy. Powell told the markets that the Fed wouldn’t change its policy until inflation was under control, even if that hurt the U.S. economy.
Month Forecast Sep-22 12,152 Oct-22 12,700 Nov-22 12,689 Dec-22 12,564 Jan-23 11,339 Feb-23 10,702 Mar-23 10,536 Apr-23 9,034 May-23 8,558 Jun-23 7,802 Jul-23 8,461 Aug-23 8,071
August 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
The NASDAQ closed at 12,391 in July. The forecast had projected a substantial recovery for months, and it finally materialized in July. The projection model anticipated that the market would be volatile throughout the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. It continued to forecast a corrective upward movement before the downward trend resumed.
Some economic data is weak, but not the labor market data. Company hiring continues to be robust. This quarter’s earnings are better than expected, and many expect a rosy next quarter or rest of the year. Uncertainty remains over whether inflation will be tamed soon and whether rate hikes will slow economic growth. Markets will remain volatile as a result.
Month Forecast Aug-22 13,846 Sep-22 13,239 Oct-22 13,967 Nov-22 13,957 Dec-22 13,754 Jan-23 12,305 Feb-23 11,501 Mar-23 11,190 Apr-23 9,503 May-23 8,994 Jun-23 8,256 Jul-23 9,101
July 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
On June 30, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 11,029. Since setting a new all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, the NASDAQ index has been under pressure. The market was expected to be volatile for the rest of 2022, according to the projection model. It predicted a significant increase in the not-too-distant future, followed by a dramatic decline.
The NASDAQ index has suffered the most as interest rates have risen. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in June to combat inflation and will continue to do so in the future. Investors fear that rising interest rates will trigger a recession. Interest rate increases reduce the present value of future earnings. For this reason, growth and technology companies have become less appealing.
Rising food, energy, and commodity prices may limit consumer spending. As a result, both business profits and economic growth would suffer. COVID’s influence on international trade is growing as shipping costs rise and the frequency of delays rises. Because of the situation in Ukraine and China’s zero COVID policy, this slowdown is more severe than expected. Earnings should be the primary driver of stock prices in the future, rather than macroeconomic factors. To this end, there is a strong possibility that market volatility will continue.
Month Forecast Jul-22 14,190 Aug-22 15,175 Sep-22 14,574 Oct-22 15,138 Nov-22 14,602 Dec-22 13,922 Jan-23 12,042 Feb-23 10,980 Mar-23 10,469 Apr-23 8,702 May-23 8,288 Jun-23 7,687
June 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
On May 31, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 12,081. Since reaching an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, the NASDAQ index has been under pressure. For the rest of 2022, the forecast model predicted a sideways and then declining trend.
Rising interest rates have hurt the NASDAQ index the most. The Fed will continue to do so in order to combat inflation. Investors fear that higher rates could cause a recession. Higher yields discount future earnings, making growth and tech stocks less attractive. Food, energy, and commodity costs may slow consumer spending, hurting business earnings and economic growth. COVID’s impact on global trade continues to grow as shipping costs climb and delays become routine. High energy costs push up shipping expenses, and a trucking manpower shortage compounds the issue. Inflation and supply chain concerns may last until 2022. Volatility will likely continue.
Month Forecast Jun-22 14,143 Jul-22 14,394 Aug-22 15,027 Sep-22 14,192 Oct-22 14,777 Nov-22 14,810 Dec-22 14,921 Jan-23 13,857 Feb-23 13,597 Mar-23 13,947 Apr-23 12,612 May-23 12,769
May 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
On April 29, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 12,335. The NASDAQ index, which hit an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, has been under pressure ever since. The forecast model expected a sideways and then declining trend for the rest of 2022.
The NASDAQ index has been trading between 14,000 and 16,000 since June, but it finally fell below 14,000 this month. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 0.75 percent this year and will keep doing so to combat rising inflation and warn against the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Higher food, energy, and commodity prices may soon slow consumer spending, affecting corporate earnings and slowing economic growth. COVID’s impact on global trade continues to grow as shipping costs rise and delays become routine. High energy costs drive up shipping costs, and a labor shortage among trucking companies compounds the issue. Inflation and supply chain issues are likely to continue through 2022. Price and market volatility will probably continue.
Month Forecast May-22 14,025 Jun-22 14,743 Jul-22 14,982 Aug-22 15,622 Sep-22 14,757 Oct-22 15,382 Nov-22 15,475 Dec-22 15,600 Jan-23 14,509 Feb-23 14,217 Mar-23 14,576 Apr-23 13,232
April 1, 2022, NASDAQ Forecast
On March 31, 2022, the NASDAQ index closed at 14,220. The NASDAQ index, which hit an all-time high of 16,212 in 2021, has been under pressure ever since. The forecast model still predicted that the index would rise slightly before settling into a steady pattern for the rest of 2022.
The NASDAQ index stayed between 14,000 and 16,000, as did the model projection. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat growing inflation and warn about the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Constrained consumer spending may soon impact corporate earnings and so hinder economic growth. Equities confront a double threat as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policies and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may slow economic growth. Inflation and supply chain problems will probably persist. Price and market volatility are likely to remain.
Month Forecast Apr-22 14,897 May-22 14,801 Jun-22 15,533 Jul-22 15,750 Aug-22 16,330 Sep-22 15,370 Oct-22 15,845 Nov-22 15,968 Dec-22 16,095 Jan-23 15,114 Feb-23 14,911 Mar-23 15,258
The forecast model continued to predict a gain in the NASDAQ index based on the March closing price. It indicated a small upward rise in the following months before grinding to a halt. This might mean a setback in the near term. Due to the uncertainty, investors should proceed with caution. One thing to examine is using a covered call strategy.
SP 500 Forecast
The forecast for the SP 500 is also available. You can read about it here.