Yesterday, I did a February projection on the S&P 500 – between 3862, a 4% gain from the January close, and 3899, a 5% gain from the January close. Today, the index hit the high of 3894 before it closed at 3886. The 5% projection is based on the historical norm. Maybe we’ll begin to see the index consolidating between 3788 and 3899, which is still between 2% and 5% gain from the January close.
Today, I looked at the S&P 500 long-term weekly chart. I found something quite interesting. As you could see the calculation in the chart below, back on 10/8/2007, the index hit the high of 1576. 1576 x 1.382 gives us the first projected high of 2178. The index hit 2134 on 5/18/2015. The error was 44 points.
2134 x 1.382 gives us the 2nd projected high of 2949. The index hit 2940 on 9/17/2018. This time, the error was merely 9 points.
2940 x 1.382 gives us the 3rd projected high of 4063. The index is only 177 points, or 4.6%, away from today’s close, 3886. Will we have another surprise like the one we had in November, 2020, in which the index rose 11%? I think the index may come near the projected high of 4063 in March or April.