S&P 500 Projection – 4063

Yesterday, I did a February projection on the S&P 500 – between 3862, a 4% gain from the January close, and 3899, a 5% gain from the January close.  Today, the index hit the high of 3894 before it closed at 3886.  The 5% projection is based on the historical norm.  Maybe we’ll begin to see the index consolidating between 3788 and 3899, which is still between 2% and 5% gain from the January close.

Today, I looked at the S&P 500 long-term weekly chart.  I found something quite interesting.  As you could see the calculation in the chart below, back on 10/8/2007, the index hit the high of 1576.  1576 x 1.382 gives us the first projected high of 2178.  The index hit 2134 on 5/18/2015.  The error was 44 points.

2134 x 1.382 gives us the 2nd projected high of 2949.  The index hit 2940 on 9/17/2018.  This time, the error was merely 9 points.

2940 x 1.382 gives us the 3rd projected high of 4063.  The index is only 177 points, or 4.6%, away from today’s close, 3886.  Will we have another surprise like the one we had in November, 2020, in which the index rose 11%?  I think the index may come near the projected high of 4063 in March or April.   

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